The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, a recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) implies it may be just the tip of the iceberg.

The nonprofit research group analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume on Polymarket from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone, with some cases exceeding 50% success rates.

Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed around 14% of the time across political markets. The authors suggest that markets tied to government policies, such as military and defense, are particularly susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading.

This creates an environment where a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by possessing more knowledge. The report's findings contribute to a growing body of research indicating that a small percentage of traders drive price discovery and capture a disproportionate amount of profits on Polymarket. A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery, while separate analysis by Solidus Labs showed that fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains. The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S.

strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits. The pattern of well-timed, successful longshot bets extends beyond this single event, with winning bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution across Polymarket's military and defense category.

While longshot bets can outperform due to various reasons, the consistency of these patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests some participants may operate with information advantages. The ACDC recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity. Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate on whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.