This excerpt is from the CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' To stay updated, sign up here. Bitcoin's price surged to $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets following the release of earnings reports from major US tech companies, which helped stabilize the market.
The upswing came after Apple, along with its peers including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reported significant revenue growth, boosting investor confidence across the industry. Although the gains reflect a sense of relief rather than a conviction that a new rally has begun, they were driven by renewed faith in the AI growth story, which pulled investors back into equities and crypto. According to crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, the market is currently facing short-term pressure due to mixed structural factors, including lowered expectations for rate cuts, outflows from ETFs, and heightened geopolitical risk.
Despite these challenges, crypto prices remained steady this week, even as oil prices rose and spot bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows exceeding $400 million at the end of April. The ongoing conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven up crude prices, potentially fueling inflation and making central banks less likely to cut interest rates.
This, in turn, could make cash and bonds more attractive, weighing on crypto and other risk assets. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, along with the absence of clear signals for rate cuts, led to a repricing of policy expectations.
As stated by Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data. In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's chairmanship at the Fed set to end on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, potential volatility may arise due to Warsh's preference for tightening monetary policy. A crucial test for bitcoin lies at the $80,000 mark; a break above this level could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound. For further analysis of today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of upcoming events, refer to CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.' Currently trending is the weekly bitcoin price plot, which is testing resistance at the $80,000 zone, with the RSI indicating early signs of a bullish divergence, though this remains unconfirmed on a weekly close.
Failure to break above this level may keep the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of approximately $68,000 and the $80,000 level.