According to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, prediction markets are undergoing a significant shift from occasional, event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user interaction. In March, Polymarket's trading volume reached $25.7 billion, but the report highlights a more profound change in user behavior. An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter reveals that users are returning to the platform more frequently and engaging with a broader range of markets, spanning cryptocurrency, sports, and politics. The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's continued dominance by individual participants.
Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades. Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, notes, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.
We're witnessing a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more frequent interactions, not larger trades.' Cryptocurrency remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements. However, as users become more active, their participation expands to markets tied to real-world events.
The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events like elections, but are instead becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Polymarket's director of growth and partnerships, states, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself.
We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume rising from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term trajectory toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is shifting toward accessibility and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, enabling users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.