In six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is set to occur, with SpaceX aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive IPO, along with upcoming listings from OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to pull in over $240 billion in investments from June to the end of the year.
This capital influx could divert investment away from crypto, as all these companies draw from the same liquidity pool. The combination of these IPOs may lead to a bearish outlook on equities, potentially triggering a rotation out of the market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin, may be affected as they are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. The SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and significant bitcoin holdings, may have a direct impact on crypto flows. As the roadshow approaches in May and June, the crypto market's response will be a key indicator of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows.