Despite bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $78,348.72, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lingers 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a drastic drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% plunge from its all-time high, with bitcoin analyst James Check deeming such a move statistically extraordinary, albeit not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which evaluates bitcoin's price based on historical percentiles, indicating that a price of $40,000 would rank in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, an occurrence below any meaningful deviation across major anchors, equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. Currently, bitcoin's price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.
Check notes that while no market event has zero probability, a drop to $40,000 would be a near-unprecedented outcome.