Bitcoin Bulls Face Hurdles in Quest to Regain $80,000

Bitcoin, currently trading at $78,799.14, has retreated from its earlier weekly high of above $79,000 to $76,500, halting its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. Those anticipating a rapid recovery should note that recent economic data does not support a significant bullish surge. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers revealed a record-low consumer sentiment index of 49.8, primarily driven by inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also increased, with the one-year gauge rising to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month, and long-term expectations reaching 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This surge in inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts, as additional easing may exacerbate inflationary pressures, potentially capping gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts warn that the Fed closely monitors these expectations to prevent inflation psychology from becoming unanchored. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday, while traders anticipate a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. Meanwhile, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot BTC, and coordinated industry efforts have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. Bitcoin's hourly price swings since late March indicate a potential uptrend exhaustion, with prices trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages, pointing to a possible deeper price pullback.