According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity.
He notes that users who own HYPE can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, unlike users of Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market. In comparison to Polymarket's expected token launch and Kalshi's compliance-focused model, Hyperliquid's approach may provide a unique value proposition.
The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established.