The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid, initially perceived as an isolated incident, may be just the tip of the iceberg. A comprehensive analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) of over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, reveals that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have achieved success rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone, with some cases exceeding 50%. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in markets tied to government policies, such as military and defense, and foreign affairs, where public information is limited and the gap between informed and uninformed traders is widest. The ACDC report builds upon existing research indicating that a small group of traders, roughly 3%, drives most price discovery on Polymarket, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains.
By examining the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, the report highlights the concentration of profits and suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages.
The findings point to a potential crisis of insider trading on Polymarket, prompting calls for enhanced market surveillance, identity verification, and restrictions on certain markets and contracts. Ultimately, the report concludes by advocating for an evidence-based discussion on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all, given the inherent risks of information asymmetry and the potential for insider trading.