A new report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from event-based betting to platforms driven by daily user interaction. The report highlights a notable change in user behavior, with trading volume on Polymarket reaching $25.7 billion in March. An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows that users are returning more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics.
The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.' The report suggests that crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, but as users become more active, they shift towards markets tied to real-world events. This evolution is seen as a structural change, with prediction markets transforming into continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities. The shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and appearing alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The industry is projected to reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term path towards $1 trillion, and the focus is moving towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points for users.