As bitcoin appeared to gain momentum to surpass $80,000, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as an obstacle. The Pentagon recently informed US lawmakers in a classified briefing that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and will only commence after the US-Iran conflict ends. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain high through the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post.
This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, which would negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than real economic activity. Rising costs for essential items like fuel and food may also reduce investors' willingness to invest in speculative assets. These risks are reflected in markets, with WTI crude increasing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields rising across major economies.
Some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market, warning of potential correction risks if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.