A historic stock market debut is imminent, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline.

SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the latter potentially raising over $60 billion in October. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings.

The crypto market sits in the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, and the correlation between bitcoin, ether, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been tightening over the past two cycles. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also impact the crypto market.

A similar scenario played out in 2021 when Coinbase listed, marking the peak of the last bitcoin cycle. The lesson from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.

SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.

A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.