The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil surged above $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the escalating tensions, Iran has stated that the country is on the verge of collapse, according to Trump's claims on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. The exception is Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to post gains over the seven-day period.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when investors shift their capital to the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been alleviated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility.
With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February. The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders.
The US equity market sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have regained 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. However, if the assessment is incorrect, Bitcoin's price could drop to $75,000, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as anticipated.