According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing upside potential, not just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes believes is only the first step. The real differentiator, he argues, is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly benefit from platform usage. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a strong user base in the region, while Kalshi's model is centered around compliance and licensing, limiting its ability to offer token-based incentives.