A shift is occurring in prediction markets, transforming them from event-based betting platforms to engagement-driven systems, according to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. The report highlights that in March, Polymarket's trading volume reached $25.7 billion, with 1.29 million wallets active in the first quarter, indicating a change in user behavior. Users are now participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets. The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 in the quarter, suggesting retail participants dominate the market.
Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly. Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, stated, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.' Crypto is the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, but as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events. The report frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, noted, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The industry has experienced rapid growth, with monthly trading volume climbing from $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.