A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its effects may be felt in the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this initial public offering will be the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
This massive capital influx may draw interest away from cryptocurrencies, potentially disrupting their liquidity. The combined offerings of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are projected to exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a sum that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This significant capital pull may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. As a result, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may experience a decline in value as investors allocate their funds to these new opportunities.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021 serves as a cautionary tale, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The connection between SpaceX's IPO and crypto flows is twofold: the substantial retail allocation of $22 billion may divert funds away from cryptocurrencies, and SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes it the first public company with a material bitcoin holding.
The upcoming roadshow in May and June will be a crucial test for crypto, as it will indicate whether the market can withstand the impending IPO or if it will begin to drift lower.