According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to disrupt the market.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. Hayes argues that users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, giving Hyperliquid a competitive edge.
In contrast, Polymarket is still grappling with regulatory classifications in Asia, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The split between the three platforms is structural, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it.