The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuelan raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research organization, has analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026.
The findings suggest that certain low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have won at rates that defy explanation by skill or chance alone, with success rates exceeding 50% in some cases. This discrepancy is particularly pronounced in markets tied to government policies, such as military and defense, where public information may be insufficient to make informed decisions. The report's authors note that these markets are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading and specialized knowledge.
The gap between informed and uninformed traders may be widest in these markets, allowing a small group to consistently outperform others. The report's findings build upon existing research, which has shown that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, with roughly 3% of traders driving prices and fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The study examines the June 2025 U.S.
strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in profits of about $1.8 million for eight wallets. The report suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages, and recommends measures such as identity verification, conditional payouts, and restrictions on certain markets to mitigate potential insider trading. Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate about the propriety of allowing the public to bet on these outcomes.