A historic IPO is on the horizon, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock-market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.

Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. However, SpaceX is not alone in its pursuit of going public. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is targeting a Q4 listing at a valuation near $1 trillion, while Anthropic is planning an October debut that could raise over $60 billion.

The combined capital raised from these IPOs could exceed $240 billion from June through year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital could potentially drain the liquidity that has been supporting bitcoin and the crypto market. According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, the SpaceX IPO could be a bearish signal for equities, drawing comparisons to the Solana $300 moment.

The mechanical setup of these IPOs, concentrated within a six-month window, could lead to a rotation out of the market, affecting not only equities but also crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of the capital that would otherwise support crypto could be redirected. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines.

The upcoming SpaceX IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.

A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could indicate that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.