Following a brief surge above $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated to around $76,500, stalling its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. The latest economic data suggests that a swift rebound may not be imminent. The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers revealed a significant decline in consumer sentiment to an all-time low of 49.8, largely driven by inflation concerns related to the Iran conflict.
Furthermore, inflation expectations have risen sharply, with the one-year gauge increasing to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month, and long-term expectations reaching 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This escalation in inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts or monetary easing, potentially capping the upside for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Analysts warn that the Fed is closely monitoring these expectations, and the recent shift could raise the bar for any near-term easing. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday, while traders are pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June.
In the cryptocurrency market, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot Bitcoin prices. Meanwhile, coordinated efforts to mitigate the impact of the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens perform relatively well compared to the broader market.
The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index saw a 0.5% gain over 24 hours, decoupling from the decline in the CoinDesk 20. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's hourly price chart shows a dive out of an ascending trendline, with prices trading below their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating potential uptrend exhaustion and scope for a deeper price pullback.