The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mix of trends, with Bitcoin holding steady at just under $77,000 on Wednesday, despite a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This development has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $111 per barrel.
In response, Iran has signaled its willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. However, Dogecoin has bucked this trend, rising 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is increasing, a common occurrence during times of macroeconomic stress when investors seek the relative safety of the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's calm demeanor is indicative of a shift in market structure, with the supply overhang having dissipated and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears having exited the market. Ebtikar notes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely believed, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the market currently experiencing a quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for investors to exit their positions.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal back toward $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February.
As the Fed announces its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday, and with the US equity market experiencing a sell-off on growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, traders will be watching to see whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a fresh catalyst emerges.