According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity. He stated that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar benefits to their users. While Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, its valuation is speculated to be around $14 billion, compared to HYPE's $38 billion.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a strong user base in the region. Kalshi, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, making it an interesting test of Hayes' thesis that token incentives can provide a value-accrual layer for users.