The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, a new report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates it may be just the tip of the iceberg.
The nonprofit research group analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, totaling $54.4 billion in cumulative volume. The findings show that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone. Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed about 14% of the time across political markets, but in military-linked contracts, success rates have surpassed 50% in some cases. The authors note that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense and foreign affairs, are particularly challenging to forecast using public information, making them more vulnerable to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
This creates an environment where a small group of traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by possessing more information. Polymarket emphasizes its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case, highlighting that trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform. The ACDC report complements existing research, including a working paper from London Business School and Yale, which found that roughly 3% of traders are responsible for most price discovery on Polymarket. Separate analysis by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs revealed that profits are even more concentrated, with less than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains.
The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where Polymarket listed several date-specific contracts on whether a strike would occur. Despite the Pentagon's efforts to keep the operation covert, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits. The pattern persists beyond this single event, with winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution across Polymarket's military and defense category.
While longshot bets can outperform due to various reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations, the consistency of these patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages. The ACDC's recommendations include implementing identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity.
Ultimately, the report calls for an informed debate on whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.