A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's IPO expected in June, which may divert interest away from crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
This would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record, making it the largest stock market debut in history. The combined IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital pull may trigger a bearish trend in equities, affecting crypto as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and major equities has tightened over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also impact crypto.
Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO, with a 30% retail allocation, may divert funds away from crypto, and its material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules adds another layer of complexity.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.