The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mix of trends, with Bitcoin staying stagnant while other assets experience fluctuations. As of Wednesday in Asian hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially given the surge in Brent crude prices above $111 per barrel, sparked by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump is preparing for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated that it may consider an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively.
In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience growth. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during times of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has diminished, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly thought, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by wider volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for investors to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a clean loss could potentially lead to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, are likely to impact the market.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices remain elevated near $111, putting pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, unless a fresh catalyst prompts a new wave of selling.