The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuelan raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has uncovered evidence suggesting a broader issue with insider trading in military and defense markets on Polymarket.
The study analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, finding that low-probability bets in military-linked contracts have success rates exceeding 50% in some cases, far surpassing the typical 14% success rate for such bets in other markets. This disparity suggests that some traders may be leveraging confidential information or specialized knowledge to gain an unfair advantage. The ACDC report builds on existing research indicating that a small group of traders, approximately 3%, drive price discovery on Polymarket, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing around half of all profits. The findings have significant implications, prompting calls for enhanced market surveillance, identity verification, and restrictions on certain markets to prevent potential insider trading and ensure a level playing field for all participants.