A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from event-driven bets to platforms focused on daily user engagement. The report reveals that trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, with a notable change in user behavior. Data from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows users are engaging more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics. The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's dominance by retail users.
Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer, 'Prediction markets are transitioning from being about capital to consistent, repeated actions. We're witnessing a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more frequent engagement, not larger trades.' Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements. However, as users become more active, their participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report views this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events like elections, but are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself.
We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has accelerated rapidly, with monthly trading volume increasing from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, enabling users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.