A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, and it may draw interest away from crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This could lead to the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning listings, the combined capital raise could exceed $240 billion from June to year-end, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and the upcoming IPOs could trigger a shift in speculative capital, potentially impacting crypto prices.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. With SpaceX's IPO Allocating 30% to retail investors, approximately $22 billion, this could divert funds away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could indicate that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.