The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is maintaining its stability despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude oil prices above $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has expressed its country's state of distress, while Tehran has hinted at potentially accepting an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, was Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a much thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily a function of broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate urgency for sellers to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a clean loss could potentially lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The Fed's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched, particularly in light of the US equity market's sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure. With Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours, traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, unless a new selling wave is triggered.