According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading options, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under its HIP-4 proposal, which will enable users to trade events on the platform. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market venue.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's potential token, which has an implied valuation of roughly $14 billion. The geographic landscape also favors Hyperliquid, with a user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established. In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory constraints, with Polymarket rebuilding its US business and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing, ruling out token incentives.
This makes Hyperliquid the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, with users able to trade event outcomes and also have a path to the upside of the platform itself through the HYPE token.