As April comes to a close, Bitcoin is adopting a defensive stance at $78,273.84, yet historical trends indicate that any downturns might be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for an upward trajectory in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has shown a bullish trend for the largest cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years seeing gains, averaging around 8% despite being less impressive than months like October and November.
Following April's 10% gain, this seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain in place, supported by similar seasonality in the S&P 500. Back-to-back net inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs, totaling over $1.8 billion this month, signal strong institutional demand, bolstering the bullish case.
However, traders must monitor bond markets, where rising yields pose a risk to risk assets. Analysts note that Bitcoin's inability to sustain above $78K and its drift towards $75K suggests the market is digesting the 'higher-for-longer' signal, appearing range-bound without a breakout. The global economy, potentially impacted by the Iran war and energy market disruption, also poses a risk. Despite these challenges, the impending bullish crossover, where the 50-day average moves above the 100-day average, may signal further upside for Bitcoin's price, though its reliability, especially in bear markets, is mixed.