The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuela raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A new report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research group, has analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have been winning at rates that cannot be easily explained by skill or luck, with some cases reaching success rates of over 50%.
These "longshot" bets typically succeed around 14% of the time across political markets. However, in military-linked contracts, the success rates have been significantly higher, suggesting that some traders may have access to confidential information or specialized knowledge that gives them an edge. The report highlights that markets related to government policies, such as military and defense, are particularly difficult to predict using only public information.
This creates an environment where informed traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by having superior knowledge. Polymarket has emphasized its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case. The platform prohibits trading on confidential knowledge, as does Kalshi. The ACDC report's findings support a growing body of research indicating that a small group of traders dominates the market.
A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket. Separate analysis by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs showed that profits are concentrated among fewer than 1% of wallets, which capture about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike.
Eight wallets shared about $1.8 million in profits, with one taking nearly $500,000. Despite the Pentagon's efforts to keep the operation secret, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome.
The pattern of winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in the two-hour windows before market resolution, particularly in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may have information advantages. While longshot bets can outperform due to other factors like mispricing or shifts in public expectations, the consistency of the patterns implies that some traders may be operating with superior knowledge. The ACDC report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity. The report concludes by calling for an evidence-informed debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.