Despite the market fluctuations around it, Bitcoin has shown minimal movement. It reached nearly $77,000 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has claimed the country is on the verge of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. The prices of other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have dropped over the week, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8%.
In contrast, Dogecoin experienced a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to show growth over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance has begun to rise, a trend often observed when macroeconomic stress leads to increased investment in the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has been depleted and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market.
According to Ebtikar, Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise and central bank policies than commonly believed, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level that, if breached, could lead to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has consistently rejected Bitcoin since February.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the potential returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% during Asian trading hours. The price of Brent crude has continued to fluctuate, remaining elevated near $111, and placing renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, at least until a new selling wave is triggered.