Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, a proposal that introduces event trading on the platform, is seen as a key differentiator. Hayes argues that the real game-changer is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from their usage of the platform, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and a robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market venue. The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi's model, built around compliance and licensing, is unlikely to offer token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.
The contrast between the three platforms highlights the structural split between Hyperliquid, which ties usage to a token, Polymarket, which appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi, which is likely to prevent it altogether.