The resurgence of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has dropped 2.1% to $75,633, marking a 3% decline over the week, while Brent crude oil has jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, its highest level in four years. This surge in oil prices is attributed to an Axios report stating that President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on new military options against Iran, which has led to a war premium being factored into asset prices. As a result, the global benchmark for oil has been on a nine-day winning streak, with prices increasing over 100% year-to-date.
Other cryptocurrencies such as ether, XRP, and Solana have also experienced declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37. The only notable exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 3.8% increase.
Risk assets across the board are experiencing losses, with the Nasdaq 100 futures and European equities expected to decline. The dollar has gained, and bonds have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset holding a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 despite the conflict entering its third month. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind, which is contingent upon a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel.