As April comes to a close, Bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance at $78,130.87, but historical seasonal patterns indicate that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for an upward trend in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has typically been a favorable month for the cryptocurrency, with seven out of the past 13 years seeing gains. Although the average return of approximately 8% is less substantial than in months like October and November, it still suggests a positive outlook. Following April's 10% increase, the broader uptrend may remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonal trends in the S&P 500, which is nearing record highs.
The consecutive net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month and $1.32 billion in March, signify strong institutional demand and bolster the bullish case. However, traders must monitor bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets.
According to Jake Kennis, a research analyst at Nansen, 'Bitcoin's inability to sustain above $78K and its subsequent decline toward $75K suggests the market is processing the 'higher-for-longer' signal, appearing range-bound rather than poised for a breakout, with macro headwinds limiting near-term upside despite a relatively flat performance over 14 days.' Another risk factor is a potential global economic flare-up, with several observers warning that the Iran war and energy market disruption could negatively impact the global economy in May. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, also cautioned that 'May is when the lag ends, and the real economy starts paying the bill.' The chart shows bitcoin's price fluctuations in candlestick format over 2026 and 2021-22, with two lines representing the average price over 50 days and 100 days.
As of today, the 50-day average appears poised to surpass the 100-day average, a bullish crossover indicating strengthening short-term momentum relative to the medium-term trend, which may signal further upside if sustained.