A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are transitioning from occasional, event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user interaction. The report notes that trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, with 1.29 million wallets active in the first quarter, indicating a shift towards more frequent participation across a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics. The data suggests that growth is driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 in the quarter, indicating a retail-driven market.
Users are now engaging in smaller, more regular trades, marking a behavioral shift towards consistent and repeated actions, according to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO. While crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements, user participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events as they become more active. The report frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
As prediction markets become core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself, with a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement, according to Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. This shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The industry has seen rapid growth, with monthly trading volume climbing from $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, and active wallets more than tripling in six months. Projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path towards $1 trillion, with the focus shifting towards access and usability, and wallets emerging as key entry points for users to discover and interact with markets in real-time.