According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes that the real game-changer is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity, a feature that Polymarket and Kalshi lack.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant player in the prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion.
Hayes' argument also highlights the geographical advantages of Hyperliquid, which has a strong user base in Asia and faces no regulatory constraints. In contrast, Polymarket is rebuilding its US business and grappling with regulatory issues in Asia, while Kalshi's compliance-focused model rules out token incentives. The differences between the three platforms are stark, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.