A new report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a substantial transformation in the prediction market landscape, as it transitions from sporadic, event-driven betting to a platform characterized by consistent user engagement. The trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, with data from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter showing users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics. The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, highlighting the dominance of retail participants.
According to Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, 'Prediction markets are shifting from being about capital to consistent, repeated actions, with the market scaling through more frequent trades rather than larger ones.' The report suggests that cryptocurrency serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of initial activity, but as users become more active, they shift towards markets tied to real-world events. The study frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as crucial as the underlying market itself, with a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The industry has experienced rapid growth, with monthly trading volume rising from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term path toward $1 trillion. As participation increases, the focus is moving towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, enabling users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.