The price of Bitcoin has declined on Tuesday, following its failure to maintain a level above $79,000 for the third time in eight sessions, thus defining the current range. On Tuesday morning, Bitcoin traded at $76,923, representing a 2.4% decline over the past 24 hours, after reaching $79,399 on Monday and subsequently reversing its gains throughout the day. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, also experienced significant declines, with losses ranging from 1.8% to 3.9%. In contrast, TRON and DOGE were the only top 10 tokens to trade in the green over the past 24 hours.
The surge in oil prices, with Brent crude rising 1% to above $109 per barrel, has been driven by the failure of Iran's interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has indicated that U.S.
officials are discussing the proposal while maintaining their 'red lines' on any potential deal to end the eight-week conflict. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained relatively stable, with Japanese stocks receiving support from the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy unchanged.
The yen strengthened 0.3% to approximately 159 per dollar. Market analysts are presenting two distinct interpretations of the Bitcoin market. According to Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital, the return of U.S. retail investors, combined with institutional capital and limited supply, has created a foundation for further upside potential.
Santiment data reveals that whales have accumulated over 40,000 BTC in the past two weeks, and the firm has noted a significant shift in sentiment from fear to fear of missing out. In contrast, CryptoQuant's Ki Young-Ju argues that Bitcoin's push above $79,000 was primarily driven by a short squeeze in the derivatives market rather than sustained spot demand, leaving the market vulnerable to a reversal once the squeeze is exhausted. The funding rates on perpetual futures across major exchanges remain negative on a 7-day basis, indicating that shorts are still paying longs to hold positions, a pattern that historically precedes both squeezes and the unwinding of squeezes. These two views are not mutually exclusive, as spot demand from retail and institutions can return simultaneously with the rally toward $79,000 being front-loaded by short covering.
The key test is whether the next attempt at the level brings fresh spot bids or runs out of shorts to squeeze. Corporate accumulation of Bitcoin continues, with Strategy purchasing $3.9 billion of Bitcoin in April, the firm's largest monthly accumulation in a year. Japanese company Metaplanet has announced a $50 million bond issuance to finance new Bitcoin purchases, the latest in a series of yen-denominated debt deals used to build one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries outside the U.S.
The week's catalysts are expected to arrive on Wednesday and Thursday, with the Federal Reserve announcing its policy decision on Wednesday and megacap tech earnings from major companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple, being released on Wednesday and Thursday. Either the Fed or a strong earnings beat could be the catalyst to push Bitcoin past $80,000; without one, the rejection from the level starts to define the upper end of the range rather than precede a breakout.