Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes thinks will be a game-changer. He argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure.
The fact that users can own the HYPE token and profit from their usage of HIP-4 gives Hyperliquid an edge over its competitors. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographical constraints faced by Polymarket, particularly in Asia, also give Hyperliquid an advantage.
Overall, the introduction of HIP-4 and the HYPE token may cement Hyperliquid's position as a leading prediction market platform.