The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note surged to 5% earlier today, reaching its highest point since July 2025. This significant milestone has been achieved only twice in the past twenty years. The reaction from Holger Zschaeptiz, a prominent macro commentator, summed up the sentiment of many crypto analysts who view rising yields as a challenge for bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value. According to Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, the current dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain attractive and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safer alternatives, putting pressure on assets like crypto.
Bitcoin is already feeling the pressure, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours, while the Dollar Index hovers above 99. The rise in bond yields typically hurts bitcoin and other risk assets because it makes bonds more attractive. With a 30-year Treasury yielding 5%, investors can earn an almost risk-free return, making every dollar invested in bitcoin a dollar not earning that 5% yield.
This tradeoff often leads to capital rotation out of non-yielding risk assets. Rising yields also impact gold, which fell over 1% to a one-month low.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, noted that historically, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, pointing to financial tightening and disincentivizing risk-taking.
The recent surge in oil prices, with Brent briefly topping $125 per barrel, has lifted inflation expectations, further driving yields higher. As Diana Pires stated, until the Fed signals a near-term shift in policy, flows will continue to favor yield and safety over volatility, keeping the macro backdrop a headwind for crypto.