As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a defensive stance at $78,177.64, yet historical seasonal patterns indicate that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for an upward trend in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has been a favorable month for the cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years seeing gains, and an average return of around 8%. Following April's 10% increase, this seasonal pattern suggests the broader upward trend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish trends in the S&P 500. Institutional demand, as evidenced by consecutive net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, further supports the bullish outlook, with over $1.8 billion in inflows this month.
However, traders must remain vigilant due to the headwinds posed by rising bond yields to risk assets. Analysts caution that despite the potential for upside, the market may be range-bound due to macro headwinds. Additionally, the risk of a global economic downturn, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruptions, could negatively impact the market.
A bullish crossover in the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may indicate further price gains, but the reliability of this signal is mixed, particularly in bear markets.