A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, attracting significant interest and potentially diverting attention away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the stock market. According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, the SpaceX IPO could mark a turning point for equities, leading to a bearish trend.
The MSCI has modeled a scenario where megacap IPOs in 2026 could trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in non-IPO assets. As crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, they may be impacted by the upcoming IPOs. Historical data shows that bitcoin's price tends to correlate with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it can lead to a decline in crypto prices. The Coinbase listing in April 2021 serves as a cautionary tale, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown.
The SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, could have a significant impact on crypto flows. The retail allocation of $22 billion could divert attention away from crypto assets, while the company's bitcoin holdings could provide a unique test case for the new fair-value accounting rules. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, crypto investors will be watching closely to see if the market can hold up against the impending IPOs or if it will begin to drift lower. A bitcoin rally during this period could indicate that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows, while a decline could suggest that the market is still closely tied to equities.