Recent findings indicate that a tiny fraction of traders may be exerting significant influence over prediction markets, but an even smaller subset is accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is remarkably high, with less than 1% of wallets capturing approximately half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for around 50% of gains, translating to roughly $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data reinforces previous academic research suggesting that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery.
The disparity highlights that concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders possess greater sophistication, capital, or speed in responding to information. However, the report argues that the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The study also identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus' findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform should be considered when interpreting the results.