According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing upside potential rather than just reducing trading costs. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the true differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to the implied $14 billion valuation of Polymarket's potential token. Geographical constraints also affect the competition, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing, limiting its potential for token incentives.
This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside, highlighting the structural split between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi.