The prediction market landscape is shifting away from sporadic, event-driven betting towards a model characterized by consistent user interaction, according to a report released by Bitget Wallet in collaboration with Polymarket. The trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report highlights a more profound change in user behavior. An analysis of activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter reveals that users are returning more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics. The data suggests that growth is driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating that the market is still dominated by individual participants.
Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller, more regular trades. According to Alvin Kan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.
What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more frequent interactions, not larger trades.' Cryptocurrency remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements. However, as users become more active, their participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events.
The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major events like elections, but are instead becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, notes that 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself.
We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth of the industry has accelerated rapidly, with monthly trading volume increasing from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate that the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term trajectory towards $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is shifting towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real-time.