According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is centered around capturing the upside, rather than just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee model for event trading under HIP-4, a proposal that enables event trading on the platform. Hayes believes the true differentiator lies in HYPE, Hyperliquid's native token, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, a feature currently not offered by Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, limiting users' access to platform upside. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an edge with its user base skewed towards the region, where crypto-native trading is already established.
The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.