Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week that brought it to its highest level since early February. With a 13.6% increase in April, the cryptocurrency is poised for its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass.

This rebound comes after a challenging period for crypto markets, which experienced their longest losing streak since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February. The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in US equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to the turnaround. A key driver specific to the crypto market is the substantial growth in the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, which has increased by approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks to nearly $150 billion.

This growth is significant because stablecoins, being tied to fiat currencies like the US dollar, serve as a source of liquidity in crypto markets, indicating capital flow into the crypto market and a positive signal for asset prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, which have kept oil prices elevated, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns. According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets have offset worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks, leading to a level of fatigue and complacency in the markets. Bitcoin is currently hovering near the top of its trading range, with the $79,000 level proving to be a significant cap as traders take profits.

The ability of bitcoin to break through this level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved. A breakout supported by sustained institutional demand could mark a durable shift, whereas a move driven mainly by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The upcoming April Fed meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally, with continued ETF inflows potentially turning $79,000 from resistance into support and paving the way for a higher trading range.

Conversely, if flows fade, bitcoin may revert to the $75,000–$77,000 range.