The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a period of relative calm for Bitcoin, with minimal movement, while other assets experience fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted despite Brent crude oil prices exceeding $111 per barrel, driven by reports of an extended US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump allegedly instructed aides to prepare for such a blockade, prompting Iranian officials to declare the country is in a state of collapse.
Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. In contrast to Bitcoin's stability, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB experienced significant losses, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week.
The exception was Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by wider market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break could lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February.
The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's announcement, and the US equity market's sell-off due to skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, may influence Bitcoin's price. The renewed pressure on inflation expectations, driven by elevated Brent crude prices, may also impact the cryptocurrency market.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion will hold against the next macro shock, and whether the seller base that capitulated in March and April is indeed gone, allowing Bitcoin to trade on volatility rather than headlines.