The First Ever U.S. Election Prediction Market ETFs to be Launched on Wall Street

Roundhill Investments is poised to introduce the inaugural U.S. exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, with two additional asset managers preparing to launch similar products. According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Roundhill will list six funds linked to the control of the White House, Senate, and House by Democrats or Republicans.

The launch is scheduled for May 5, as reported by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. The funds in question are the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF.

These products are tied to the control of the House and Senate following the November 3, 2026 elections, and the presidential products are linked to the November 7, 2028 election. The funds gain exposure through swap agreements that reference binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.

The prospectus includes a warning that if the targeted party does not win, the fund will lose nearly all its value. Roundhill has opted not to terminate the funds after settlement; instead, once the market prices a winner at above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and transitions into the next cycle. The prospectus also notes that if the market is later proven incorrect, there will be no recourse for shareholders.

Other companies, such as Bitwise and GraniteShares, have filed similar proposals, with distinct structures; Bitwise's funds will terminate shortly after each outcome is determined, while GraniteShares, like Roundhill, will roll into the next election. The introduction of these ETFs could expand access to prediction markets, allowing them to be held in ordinary brokerage accounts and certain retirement accounts. This development follows the CFTC's withdrawal of a proposal that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in several states continue to challenge the underlying contracts in court. Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the likelihood of a U.S.

recession.